Backup Guns

As I have read this and other forums I realize that their are a many of you that carry a backup gun. I have always tried to weigh the probability (risk) of meeting up with a deadly threat vs. being prepared. Maybe I've been lucky my whole life but in 48 years, the worst threat I've run into was when I got into playground fist fight in the 6th grade. (Nobody tells me that my girl friend has fleas!)

I am not a statistician but if I understand some of gun stats I've heard I have to ask myself these questions:

1) What do I think is the chance that I will have to actually use my gun to stop a deadly threat?

2) Of that percentage what percentage do I have to actually fire? I've heard that about 90% of the time just producing a gun will scare the BG away.

3) Of that percent what is the percentage that you will have to fire more rounds than are in your magazine. I've read that rarely is more that 3.

4) Also of the percentage in 2) What is the percentage of someone taking your primary gun away and you having enough time to get to your BUG before he uses it against you?

If you take the percent of the percent of the percent you mentally get a pretty small number or risk factor. I probably have a greater chance of being trampled in a stampede of purple Hippos on State Street but like I said before, I am not a statistician. Personally I don't carry a backup gun but as usual others have their own reasons. My thinking is something down the line of if I am in an area that I need more that one gun then I probably shouldn't be in that area. I think that LEO have a totally different needs than CCW citizens and so in my mind have a greater need for a BUG. Also you may work or live in an area that has greater risk than the general public.

What are other's views and reasons for carrying or not carrying a BUG?

BTW - Many of you might be traveling tomorrow and over the weekend. I want to wish all of you a Merry Christmas and hope that you have a safe year in which you never need to use your gun except for the sheer fun of shooting.