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20 years of TX stats show CHL holders are law abiding

3K views 4 replies 4 participants last post by  bagpiper 
#1 ·
#2 ·
A telling tale indeed. Be interesting to see the same data for other states and whether the comparisons are similar.
 
#4 ·
I'm not a statistician, but once read that a test population of just 2000 was enough to get a good statistical picture of the whole.
It's my feeling that the population of Texas and the number of Texas CHL holders being what they are and that the population of the contiguous 48 states being reasonably homogeneous the results shown are quite representative of the entire country.

I have sent that link with some questions in an email to a certain pro-gun economist/statistician we all know and love to quote to see if he has an opinion.

BTW - I don't know of any state other than Texas that, by law, maintains a database of CHL holder criminal status.
 
#5 ·
Check out the BCI webpage and dig around. They publish an annual Utah crime Stats paper that lists how many "index crimes" get committed in Utah each year, and the resultant crime rate given our population.

They used to also publish stats on how many carry permits were issued each year, how many were valid, how many had been denied, and how many had been suspended/revoked in a given year. I'm not sure if they still do.

But for several years I'd watch these and for all causes combined (including fairly minor crimes of "moral turpitude", crimes unrelated to guns at all like DUI, as well as for violent crimes) Utah revoked a grand total of 0.2% (2 out of every 1,000 permits). That was considerably lower than the overall crime rate for Utah. But it was impossible to break out violent crimes committed by permit holders vs non-violent crimes that would get a permit yanked.

The really hard stat to come up with was how other trusted, licensed groups did in terms of abiding the laws. For example, how many teachers lose their certs each year for sexual abuse of a student? How many cops lose their credentials for unlawful conduct? How many doctors or lawyers lose their licenses or are disbarred?

And even if we had the numbers for other groups, we'd still be a bit apples-to-oranges because we yank carry permits for far lower level crimes than we yank other licenses. How many cops, teachers, doctors, lawyers, or day care providers would really lose their licenses over a first offense DUI, or soliciting a prostitute? (Not that I'm defending any illegal conduct, I'm just pointing out that it is much easier to lose a carry permit than it is to forfeit many other licenses.)

And of course, that ignores the question of "professional courtesy" that might be extended from one cop to another or from a prosecutor to a cop for certain crimes. I think in many cases a police officer might never be charged, or might get a sweetheart plea deal to a non-disqualifying crime that that many others would not get. I'm not suggesting any sort of corruption. Just human nature. it is often easier to give the benefit of the doubt to someone you know personally than to a stranger.

Anyway, dig around on the BCI site and see what you can find.

Charles
 
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